As the largest single category market for semiconductors, the memory market has financial attributes that are difficult to have with other semiconductors and passivity, so many institutions and individuals are very concerned about:
End users, agents, traders and original factories, so there is a huge market analysis and predictive analysis of the space, Europe, the United States, Japan due to leave the storage market manufacturing is relatively long, lack of very detailed institutions, Taiwan and mainland China have several very good institutions.
Because there is too much market analysis information, people from different interest groups, such as the CEO of the module factory, the executives of the particle original factory and even the executives of the terminal manufacturers will make different voices. How to judge the true voice of the market must be comprehensively analyzed: including supply - original factory capacity and inventory; Channel inventory; Terminal inventory; It also includes demand - demand from end manufacturers, from mobile phones and consumer products, servers and automobiles.
1. Large mainstream OEM manufacturers
Large Oems mainly adopt the total volume framework procurement, strive for direct supply to the original factory through forecast rolling, and obtain better prices through batch.
Generally three supply at the same time, 60%; 30%; 10% or other share proportion, according to the price trend and supply capacity to adjust the short-term procurement target. We will also take purchase actions such as order delay and cancellation according to market demand.
On the whole, the procurement of large Oems is actually fixed, and the space for adjustment is relatively small, most of them are strategic reserves and strategic procurement through the original price adjustment information, agent price increase information and other channels, in fact, more step-by-step procurement implementation.
Basically, roughly grasp the trend of the market, maintain close contact with the original factory, and avoid being pitted by the original factory and agents, which can basically be stable in the supply side.
Similarly, the big OEM is basically not the source of unknown channel goods, in addition to the consideration of quality, the same is AVL and the introduction of strict access system suppliers is also a huge barrier, of course, there is no other supplier interests.
Large factories are still more interested in futures price information, and of course, large factories also have more unobstructed channels of original factory and agent information.
2. Channel terminal manufacturers
In addition to large Oems, many small and medium-sized Oems in the market, most of the manufacturers are mainly through the short-cycle spot, while cooperating with part of the agent ordering mode, to meet the needs of customers.
Because the stored price fluctuates frequently, the difficulty of controlling the spot price information is far beyond that of large Oems.
The terminal needs to have a more sensitive price sense of the product, because the main supply channels, spot suppliers are born price hunters, so long-term in the spot market engaged in buying and selling to earn the difference in the supplier more difficult to fathom and analyze.
First of all, the purchase should understand the futures price, the price of the general agent is updated once a month at the fastest in a quarter, relatively speaking, it is very difficult to get the latest agent price, you can compare it according to the price at the beginning of the quarter.
Secondly, the procurement to understand the inventory situation on the market, this is very key, such as OEM inventory will be high when the market will throw goods to the market, will lead to changes in the market price, how to know the market throw information, is also the basic requirements of procurement.
Finally, it is necessary to understand the management policy of the original factory on the channel, the general original factory limited goods, many spot vendors do not get goods, will also lead to temporary price increases, of course, the long-term price trend is macro and category demand trend.
Spot merchants are undoubtedly more sensitive to the market and prices of the group, how to obtain more favorable information for the end manufacturers, how to screen the ability and willingness of different levels of spot merchants, find long-term partners, and form the best procurement strategy, is a very need for wisdom and endurance work.
Post time: Jul-24-2023